The Edge of Forecasting: teacher key

Natural Disasters, grade 12 edition, written for 12th grade and up. Forecasters can already measure a quake, track a storm and warn a coast, yet each warning still leaves questions. See where the science is strong, where it is still catching up and how people can stay ready.

Read the book. Print this page for the key.

Questions and answers

1. What do forecasters learn when ensemble runs look alike?
   • A tornado is certain
   • The weather will likely follow the rules (answer)
   • The model is broken
2. What does Warn-on-Forecast research aim to do, as of November 2026?
   • Issue warnings based on a computer forecast (answer)
   • Stop tornadoes
   • Rate tornadoes by damage
3. What can phased array radar do?
   • Measure earthquakes
   • Name hurricanes
   • Scan an entire storm in less than one minute (answer)
4. Are hurricane categories based on storm size?
   • Yes, on size
   • No, on wind speed (answer)
   • On rainfall
5. Why are most tornado records limited?
   • Official records only go back to 1950 (answer)
   • Tornadoes are rare
   • Tornadoes cannot be rated
6. When did Cyclone Yasi's storm surge reach seven meters?
   • In 1935
   • In 2026
   • In 2011, at the Queensland coast (answer)

Words

• magnitude: earthquake size
• subduction: plate sinking
• mesocyclone: rotating updraft
• ensemble: group of runs
• latitude: distance from equator
• levees: flood walls